Strategic foresight to inform investment for food security in Sub-Saharan Africa

This scoping study is now complete, read the final report pdf (File size: 928KB) or word (File size: 450KB).

Dr Siwa Msangi presented the preliminary results of the project at the AIFSC Conference as part of the Understanding African Agriculture panel.

Read his presentation

Read the accompanying report (File Size: 488 KB)

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe some key future drivers for Africa’s agricultural landscape, and highlight their implications for future productivity, agricultural rural income generation potential and food security. This work is built on an examination of recent futures-oriented work that applies methods of foresight and projections to better understand the driving forces that will shape the future of Africa’s agriculture. Although there is a good body of work that has been done to look at the global level to examine the future interactions between the environment, agriculture and other important ecosystems – the information on Africa, from these studies, has not been sufficiently detailed to represent the heterogeneity of the agricultural landscape and markets across Africa. We point to better examples of foresight for Africa that can provide insight as to how the constraints and opportunities for agricultural growth seen in various sub-regions of the continent can be dealt with effectively by interventions of policy and technology. We also underscore some critical drivers of change that will be instrumental in shaping the trajectory of African agricultural growth in the decades to come.